Public release date: 30-Apr-2007University of Colorado at Boulder
An interactive "supermap" that portrays the mutations and spread of the avian flu around the globe over time should help researchers and policy makers better understand the virus and anticipate further outbreaks, according to a new study involving University of Colorado at Boulder and Ohio State University researchers.
The research team used data from the known evolution and spread of the avian flu, known as H5N1, to create a roadmap of viral spread in time and space, said CU-Boulder ecology and evolutionary biology Assistant Professor Robert Guralnick, a study co-author. The team projected genetic and geographic information onto an interactive globe using Google Earth technology, allowing users to fly virtually around the planet and analyze movements and changes in the genomes, or genetic blueprints, of known avian flu sub-strains that have been sequenced since the virus was first detected in Guangdong, China, in 1996.
The researchers used the novel technology to chart the spread of H5N1 through Asia, Indonesia, the Middle East and Europe by various hosts, including its transport by specific orders of birds and mammals, said CU-Boulder graduate student Andrew Hill, a study co-author. They also used the supermap to track key genetic traits prevalent in some avian flu genomes that appear to confer the ability of H5N1 to more readily infect mammals, including humans, he said.
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The team also used the supermap to visualize the spread of H5N1 in various parts of the world by specific orders of birds and mammals, including waterfowl, domestic fowl, shorebirds, raptors, songbirds, hoofed mammals and carnivores, said Guralnick.
In one instance the supermap shows a direct line spreading from Thailand to Europe in a single rapid event, illustrating a 2004 incident when several infected eagles were smuggled into Belgium, said Hill. While the birds were immediately seized and confined, preventing further spread, the supermap portrayal of the event illuminated how illicit wildlife trading can trigger huge leaps in virus transport.
The avian flu epidemic was first detected in wild aquatic birds in Guangdong in 1996 and spread to chickens and a few humans in Hong Kong by 1997. From 1997 to 2005, the virus emerged in several Southeast Asian countries and spread through multiple hosts to Japan, Korea, Russia the Middle East and India. In the past two years the virus has spread to Western Europe and reemerged in Korea.
While H5N1 is not highly communicable to humans or between humans, experts are concerned that future mutations have the potential to make the bird flu significantly more contagious. According to the World Health Organization, there have been 269 cases of the disease in humans since the initial outbreak in 1996, including 164 deaths. According to the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, an avian flu pandemic could infect 15 percent to 35 percent of the United States population and cost well over $100 billion.
Video about the Google Earth avian flu project: http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/flumap.mov.
Research Study:
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/10635157.asp.
[photo: Turkish turkey bird flu victim. Time magazine]
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